Here's a story I wrote for the paper earlier today. It was an interesting discussion.
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Four of the University of Toronto's brightest minds on matters of U.S. politics could only come up with one conclusion at a lunchtime discussion at the Mississauga campus Wednesday: no one knows who will be running for president.
With the primaries and caucuses for the two U.S. political parties concluding with Super Tuesday next week, the two who were meant to be front-runners are fighting for their political lives.
In fact one, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, who was running to lead the Republican Party into November's election, has already dropped out of the race after a horrendous showing in Florida Tuesday (Jan. 29).
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, whose nomination to lead the party was once thought of as inevitable, is now fighting, tooth and nail, the young and hyper-charismatic Barack Obama.
The professors gathered at the University of Toronto Mississauga to discuss where the races are going, who will eventually win them, and what it all means.
Mark Lippincott was the most forthright with the audience of about 100.
"The most honest thing I can say is that I don't have the faintest clue what is going on," he said. "This is unprecedented terrain. There's never been a primary and caucus season like this...All of the talking heads, all of the pundits, all of the experts, have no idea what's going on here. They're caught off guard all the time."
Even without knowing what's going on, Lippincott couldn't resist making a cautioned prediction.
"If you're betting on U.S. politics, bet on the big money," he said, pointing to Clinton for the Democrats and Mitt Romney for the Republicans.
Arnd Jurgensen, a professor of foreign policy, isn't surprised Giuliani is out of the race, but thinks it was probably bad for the Republican Party.
"Giuliani was going to have a hard time because he's so far out of step with the conservative Republicans," he said. "He's quite clearly on a different page but quite well-positioned to get swing voters in the actual election."
To win the nomination, a candidate must swing to the left or right of the political spectrum. To win the presidential election, the two candidates both have to swing back to the middle, explained Jurgensen, and fight it out for the undecided, and for each other's, voters.