X Marks the Spot

As I write this, there are five hours until Jim Flaherty reads his budget speech in the House of Commons. Only one thing is certain about this budget: it will lead to more headaches, and will not fix the fiscal imbalance.

The insiders say the federal government will hand down money to the provinces, and the government did promise to do so in the last election campaign, but that's not going to solve the problem.

Just as the federal government downloaded many services to the provinces over the last decade, they will also download the fiscal imbalance.

And as soon as the speech is over, expect howling from municipalities across the country. There's a fiscal imbalance, they'll scream. Look at all this money the provinces are going to be getting from the feds. Cities need that money. Suburbs need that money. Rural communities need that money.

Oh, and don't forget about school boards. School boards need more money. Students need more computers and books and sports teams.

The fun never stops.

Well, look at this. My blog has a new home, a prettier, more user-friendly home.
Oh, the things we can do in this space.
I can link to websites of importance.
I can even, if I so chose, quickly and easily post photographs.

That's a photo of Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board trustee Mario Pascucci. The photo just happened to still be on my desktop from the municipal election.
Anyway, good times are ahead.
The only problem is all the entries from the past year will no longer be available. I know it's difficult to deal with and you were really hoping to revisit the post about Stephen Harper's juggernaut, but you'll have to console yourselves by visiting my new, prettier, sharper site.

I remember a friend of mine, on January 24, 2006, saying she was thinking about leaving the country.

What had happened the previous evening scared her so much she thought leaving might be the best thing to do.

As you might remember, the previous night, the first Conservative government in more than 12 years was elected.

I was 14-years-old when Kim Campbell was defeated, pushing Canadian right-wingers to the fringes for more than a decade. My friend, the one who was going to leave the country, was the same age.

We didn't know anything but a Liberal Canada. We didn't know anything but Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.

My friend feared Stephen Harper. She imagined him on Parliament Hill, using newly-purchased military flame throwers to burn all the rainbow flags in Canada.

With this budget, however, people her age (and mine) may finally be able to realize that this is, in fact, Canada, and no matter what political stripe, the Prime Minister has to become a Liberal if he wants to stay in power.

It appears we do not elect based on political ideologies. Instead, we elect based on something else entirely, and force our politicians to adopt the Canadian ideology, which has something to do with equal rights and openness, and more to do with sponsoring lacrosse and showering Quebec with $100 bills.

The government doesn't change it's politics; the parties do.

What is it, after all, that makes this government any different than the one that preceded it? Just look at the criticism from some of this country's best columnists.

Andrew Coyne from the National Post: "Is this what you voted for, you loyal Conservative followers? Is this what you suffered for, through all those long years of Liberal rule, dreaming of the Conservative revolution to come? 'Hiring 50% more environmental enforcement officers?' Increasing 'the share of meal expenses that long-haul truck drivers can deduct?' Tax credits for lacrosse? Exactly how does this differ from any Liberal budget -- other than outspending them, I mean?"

John Ibbitson in The Globe and Mail: "How Liberal is this allegedly Conservative budget? It's so Liberal that it actually revives the sponsorship program."
He adds: "This is so Liberal, the Grits should sue for breach of copyright."

James Travers in the Toronto Star: "If there's irony in this budget, it's that 'Canada's new government' is using old Liberal tactics to advance Conservative strategy."

Lorrie Goldstein in the Toronto Sun: "At long last, Stephen Harper has revealed his 'hidden agenda.' It's to be a Liberal.

That's just the print columnists. Online it's an orgy of outrage that the Conservative Party of Canada is essentially doing the exact same thing the Liberal Party of Canada did when it was in power.

Beyond the budget, look at what else has changed in Canada since scary Stephen Harper became prime minister.

Gay people can still get married and will never again have to worry about the House of Commons raising the issue. We have apologized for screwing up Maher Arar's life. We now have a $1.5 billion EcoTrust Fund to cut greenhouse gas emissions. There's a tax rebate on efficient and hybrid cars and a tax on gas guzzlers. The Quebecois people constitute a nation.

It's funny now, to look back on January 24, 2006, and that conversation with my friend. She didn't leave Canada. She didn't have to. It turns out the Conservative Party all us young, urban Ontarians had in our minds doesn't exist. The Liberal advertising had us believing it, and even Harper had us believing it.

And there are still hangers-on who believe Harper is just acting like a Liberal in order to get a majority government next time around, and that he'll then break out the flame throwers and rainbow flags.

But that's unlikely to happen. The Conservative Party doesn't exist. Neither does the Liberal Party. They are simply alternative faces of one another, running a reasonably sane house.

In an ongoing attempt to keep track of where people are sitting in the House of Commons, here's a seat update.

The most recent change came Wednesday when Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi got the boot. Leader Stephane Dion kicked him out because Comuzzi said he would refuse to vote against the Conservative budget.

So, let's track the seats from Election Day 2006 until now.

This was how it looked on January 23, 2006:
Conservatives - 124
Liberals - 103
Bloq Quebecois - 51
NDP - 29
Ind - 1

First surprise was David Emerson crossing the floor from the Liberals to the Conservatives, just 15 days after being elected. Minus-1 for the Liberals; plus-1 for the Conservatives.

Then Conservative MP Garth Turner was kicked out of the party because he was a rabble rouser. Minus-1 for the Conservatives.

Bloc Quebecois MP Benoit Sauvageau died. Minus-1 for the BQ.

Raymond Gravel replaced Sauvageau when he won the by-election. Plus-1 for the BQ.

Liberal MP Joe Fontana left Ottawa to run, unsuccessfully, as a mayoral candidate in London. Minus-1 for the Liberals.

Glen Pearson replaced Fontana when he won the by-election. Plus-1 for the Liberals.

Mississauga-Streetsville MP Wajid Khan, who was elected as a Liberal, crossed the floor and joined the Conservatives. Minus-1 for the Liberals. Plus-1 for the Conservatives.

Independent MP Garth Turner joined the Liberals. Plus-1 for the Liberals.

And then Joe Comuzzi on Wednesday was kicked out of the Liberal caucus. Minus-1 for the Liberals.

So, let's rack up the scores.

Conservatives (124) + Emerson - Turner + Khan = 125

Liberals (103) - Emerson - Fontana + Pearson - Khan + Turner - Comuzzi = 101

Bloc Quebecois (51) - Sauvageau + Gravel = 51

Independents (1) + Turner - Turner + Comuzzi = 2

As I write this, there are 77 hours until the polls close in Quebec.

If the polls are anything to go by, it's going to be a wild ride. It's a tight three-way race, and in many ridings, it could go any way.

People much smarter than I are expecting a Liberal minority propped up the Action Democratique du Quebec. That's a good thing for Canada, provided you think Quebec being part of Canada is a good thing. The Liberals will keep Quebec part of Canada. The ADQ kind of straddles the fence and leader Mario Dumont said he's not particularly interested in a referendum.

John Ibbitson in The Globe and Mail expertly laid out what will happen if Liberal leader Jean Charest gets a minority. Even if Charest comes in second place behind the Parti Quebecois, he could stay Premier, as long as he can secure a deal with the ADQ. If that happens, it'll be fun to watch. And perhaps a bit scary.

***

Went to a budget breakfast this morning at the Mississauga Board of Trade. It was unbelievable, in the sense that one would have a hard time believing everyone could stay awake during a budget briefing at 8 a.m.

(I enjoy budget day, and I would've nodded off had I stayed seated.)

With the Mississauga business elite, and several MPPs, in attendance, the main highlight of the morning was when I ate a particularly sumptuous muffin.

The penultimate highlight was when Mississauga South MPP Tim Peterson, after declaring he didn't have much to say about the budget (he did follow three other MPPs who went through the budget in gruesome detail), went on at length about teenage depression.

I'm not saying teenage depression isn't an important issue, but what it had to do with the budget, this humble reporter couldn't fathom.

Two interesting developments in the lives of Mississauga's two newest MPs.

First, The Hill Times, which deals exclusively with matters in federal politics, published a piece by Ajax-Pickering MP Mark Holland.

Holland, in his article published earlier this month, asked the question, "Why are my two best friends, Bains and Alghabra, hyphenated MPs?"

By hyphenated MPs, he means the terms Muslim-MP and Sikh-MP, for Mississauga-Erindale MP Omar Alghabra and Bramalea-Gore-Malton MP Navdeep Bains, respectively.

Holland goes on to explain what he has witnessed over the past year.

"When Nav and Omar organize, it’s ethnic politics; when I organize—I’m just a good organizer. When Omar or Nav express concerns about anti-terrorism measures or foreign policy it’s because of their ancestry or religion; when I question it, either I’m debating hard choices or I’m caving under the pressure of their ideological interests."

It's an interesting article, and it's a topic both Alghabra and Bains have candidly discussed before.

Of course, others have discussed it to.

Covering a Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board meeting earlier this year, Alvin Curling, the first Black speaker of the Ontario legislative assembly, said he felt considerable pressure as an MPP.

Not only was he representing himself when he stood to speak or to vote, but he was representing every black person in Ontario. His actions spoke for all of them.

It is an unfair amount of pressure, and it's something white representatives don't need to deal with.

Of course, it should also be mentioned that women have to go through the same thing Alghabra and Bains do. Whether to a lesser extent or not is arguable.

I would argue it's probably not quite as bad for females as it is for ethnic minorities.

Standing up for women is easier than standing up for Sikhs or Muslims. More people doubt the motives of Sikhs and Muslims, even in Canada.

One hopes there will come a day when all our representatives are simply MPs, not Sikh-MPs or Muslim-MPs.

Then, as we do with all MPs, we can question their motives and competency equally, regardless of creed, colour, religion or sexual orientation.

Secondly, on the same note, The Globe and Mail's Campbell Clark wrote today that Alghabra and Bains, along with former Liberal leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy, have served libel notices on the National Post.

The Post ran a column that "asserted that the MPs struck a deal to bring sizeable delegations of Sikhs and Muslims to help elect Mr. Kennedy as Liberal leader if he would oppose two sections of the anti-terror act."

This information came from a "well-informed source," according to the editorial.

Should be interesting to follow.

I don't have much to add to the debate about the importance of the Quebec Election results last night, but I'll soldier on like a good blogger nonetheless.

In case you haven't looked at a newspaper today, here are the results:

Liberals - 48 seats
Action Democratique du Quebec - 41 seats
Parti Quebecois - 36 seats

To state the obvious: that's amazingly close.

Depending who you read, the results are either good or bad for Stephen Harper, either good or bad for Stephane Dion, and also good or bad for Quebec.

Only time, and not bloggers, will reveal the truth.

We have a federal minority government, a Quebec minority government, a Nova Scotia minority government and, I predict, way too far in advance, an Ontario minority government.

The reason it'll be a minority government in Ontario? Well, everyone else is doing it.

Plus, John Tory, the current leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives is a lot more likeable than 2003 leader, and former premier, Ernie Eves. That alone will help out the Tories.

Also, there are all those Liberal broken promises for Premier Dalton McGuinty to deal with.

I remember, as the 2003 campaign was winding down, that the Toronto Sun ran a two-page list of all the promises McGuinty had made during the election campaign. They were implying that with so many promises made, there was no way he could possibly keep them all.

If the editors at the Sun, which is an unabashedly conservative paper (note the lowercase "C"), have any sense, they will re-run that list the weekend before the election, with huge, bright red "X"s beside every unkept promise.

So, with sleek and friendly John Tory leading the Tories, and with a list of broken Liberal promises to take to the electorate, I am, more than six months before election day, calling it a Liberal minority.

Or a Progressive Conservative minority.

The point is, it'll be a minority.

The details can be worked out in October.

Tim Peterson, MPP for Mississauga South, has crossed the floor and is now a Progressive Conservative MPP. (Click link for news story.)

Tim's Brother, David, was Premier of Ontario. His other brother, Jim, was a Liberal cabinet minister.

Now Peterson, a Liberal backbencher, will become a Tory backbencher.

It is expected Peterson has done this because he realized he wouldn't be able to win in Mississauga South as a Liberal.

So, seeing as he couldn't win in the October 10 election, he switched, expecting he can win as a Tory.

Carolyn Parrish, who is the most quotable person any reporter can interview, told our John Stewart, "His family has been Liberal since the day they were born. He's just an opportunist Tory."

Remembering the Wajid Khan floor-crossing fandango from back in January, Parrish added, "It's a rampant disease out here."

Like all rampant diseases, Khan-Peterson Disease (KPD) needs to be stopped. There needs to be a fundraising walk so our best scientists can research the disease, which tends to give its victims delusions of entitlement. KPD also makes those with the disease unprincipled, unapologetic, and unable to empathize with the people who have helped them and believed them in the past.

I'm hoping to recruit Parrish to be the KPD Charity Walk mascot. Our tagline to attract people to the walk will read, "Stamp out KPD like Parrish stamped out that George W. Bush doll on national television."

THIS JUST IN: I have received a call from the world's first KPD researcher. A cure for Khan-Peterson Disease has been discovered. The cure, the researcher said, is to remove victims of the disease from government offices as quickly as possible. That is the only way to stop KPD victims from making voters look like complete idiots.